No change70.1%
375-400 bpsMacro & multiple asset dashboard
Reading markets through prices, policy expectations, and positioning.
A working view of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, gold, oil, and the rate path implied by futures. The goal is to connect market moves, not analyze each chart in isolation.
01 / Policy expectations
What federal funds futures are pricing.
Probabilities are a scenario map priced by the market, not a personal forecast.
Rates Outlook
What the market is pricing for the next Fed meeting.
Fed funds futures currently lean toward no change at the October 28, 2026 meeting, with 29.9% assigned to a move. We use this as a scenario map priced by the market, not a forecast.
Effective fed funds rate today reads 3.88% from the contract covering the month before the meeting. The meeting month contract implies 3.96% afterwards, a move of 7 basis points, which is what the split below measures against a 25 basis point step.
Compare with CME FedWatchHike29.9%
400-425 bpsEase0.0%
350-375 bpsDelayed CME 30-Day Federal Funds futures (CBOT) quotes sourced from Yahoo Finance, computed using CME's FedWatch method · computed Oct 15, 11:49 PM ET from quotes as of Oct 15, 6:00 PM ET
02 / Market dashboard
ES, NQ, gold, and oil in one view.
Each card combines the recent price path, current change, outlook, and technical map.
ES
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Nasdaq
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Gold
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Oil
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03 / Multiple asset framework
How one market can change the interpretation of another.
The sequence below is the analytical link between inflation, rates, and equity risk.
Oil and inflation
Oil strength can lift headline inflation expectations and complicate the path for monetary policy.
Rates and yields
A more hawkish Fed path can keep Treasury yields and the market's required return elevated.
Equity duration
Higher discount rates usually matter most for long duration growth assets, making NQ especially sensitive to rates.
Multiple asset confirmation
ES breadth, gold, oil, and NQ leadership help test whether the market is pricing growth, inflation, or defense.
Example: stronger oil can raise inflation risk, reduce the probability of easing, push yields higher, and pressure Nasdaq valuations, which are the most sensitive to rates, even if the earnings story remains intact.