No change65.4%
350-375 bpsMacro & cross-asset dashboard
Reading markets through prices, policy expectations, and positioning.
A working view of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, gold, oil, and the rate path implied by futures. The goal is to connect market moves—not analyze each chart in isolation.
01 / Policy expectations
What fed-funds futures are pricing.
Probabilities are a market-implied scenario map, not a personal forecast.
Rates Outlook
What the market is pricing for the next Fed meeting.
Fed funds futures currently lean toward no change at the September 16, 2026 meeting, while still assigning a meaningful probability to a hike. We use this as a market-implied scenario map, not a forecast.
View current probabilities on CME FedWatchHike34.6%
375-400 bpsEase0.0%
Below 350 bpsSnapshot: August 18, 2026, 12:14 CT · CME FedWatch
02 / Market dashboard
ES, NQ, gold, and oil in one view.
Each card combines the recent price path, current change, outlook, and technical map.
ES
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Nasdaq
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Gold
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Oil
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03 / Cross-asset framework
How one market can change the interpretation of another.
The sequence below is the analytical link between inflation, rates, and equity risk.
Oil and inflation
Oil strength can lift headline inflation expectations and complicate the path for monetary policy.
Rates and yields
A more hawkish Fed path can keep Treasury yields and the market's required return elevated.
Equity duration
Higher discount rates usually matter most for long-duration growth assets, making NQ especially rate-sensitive.
Cross-asset confirmation
ES breadth, gold, oil, and NQ leadership help test whether the market is pricing growth, inflation, or defense.
Example: stronger oil can raise inflation risk, reduce the probability of easing, push yields higher, and pressure rate-sensitive Nasdaq valuations—even if the earnings story remains intact.