Twilio equity research
A valuation-aware case covering Twilio's growth reacceleration, operating leverage, AI opportunity, downside, and disconfirming evidence.
Open full research →Capital markets · risk · investment banking · sales & trading
Building the analytical case before I build the career.
I'm Navansh Kumar Talwar, a Financial & Business Economics student who studies companies, develops valuation work, and tracks how investment ideas hold up against the market.
Financial modelingMarket researchRisk & portfolio analysisTrading perspective
01 / About me
Hi, I'm Navansh.
My interest in markets is not a recent addition to my résumé. It has been developing for the past four to five years through curiosity, independent research, following market cycles, and learning how one economic decision can ripple through an entire portfolio.
What started as a question—“Why did the market move today?”—became a deeper interest in how capital, expectations, and risk shape financial decisions.
I became interested not only in whether an investment goes up or down, but in what the market is pricing in. I want to understand how inflation changes purchasing power and corporate margins, how interest rates affect borrowing costs and valuation, and why the same information can create opportunity in one asset while increasing risk in another.
A return is not meaningful without the risk taken, the time required, the benchmark, and the alternatives available. I try to separate a good outcome from a good decision and ask what could prove my view wrong before focusing on what could make it right.
Chip Street Capital brings that thinking together through financial analysis, company research, portfolio decisions, and honest reviews of what I learned.
02 / Financial modeling
Models built around decisions, not just outputs.
The goal is to make the assumptions visible: the question, method, valuation range, sensitivities, conclusion, and risks. Working files will be added as each model is completed.
Portfolio risk & attribution
Concentration, exposure, drawdown, benchmark-relative performance, and the decisions that created or reduced risk.
Market outlook
Live ES, NQ, gold, and oil charts paired with CME rate expectations and a cross-asset read on inflation, yields, and risk appetite.
Open market outlook →03 / Futures trading
Trading experience built through strategy design, testing, and iteration.
Futures trading is where I have developed the most practical market experience. I build rule-based trading strategies, define entry and exit logic, test no-trade filters, review drawdowns, and refine the process with the goal of turning repeatable decisions into an algorithm.
Derivatives strategy lab
From discretionary observations to systematic rules.
The work combines day-to-day futures market observation with strategy development: identifying setups, documenting outcomes, avoiding low-quality conditions, and translating the strongest patterns into logic that can be tested and automated.
Market setupEntry & exit rulesRisk controlsAlgorithm testing
Monthly testing returns
1 ES contract per trade · return on intraday margin postedJanuary140.27%
February8.80%
March101.27%
April112.20%
May82.13%
June105.47%
July110.17%
August32.23%
What one trade actually is
- Instrument
- E-mini S&P 500 (ES), 1 contract per trade
- Contract multiplier
- $50 × index · tick 0.25 pt = $12.50
- Notional controlled
- ~$386,000 per contract at current index levels
- Intraday margin posted
- ~$3,000 per contract (IBKR, day-trade rate)
- Implied leverage
- ~129x notional-to-margin
- Positions held
- Intraday only — flat into the close, no overnight margin
Futures margin is a performance bond, not borrowed capital: there is no principal and no interest. The leverage is embedded in the contract itself, which is precisely why position sizing and stop discipline carry more weight here than trade selection.
Result, stated three ways
Net index points~415 pts1 lot, Jan–Aug
Return on notional~5.4%vs. $386k controlled
Return on margin posted692.53%vs. ~$3k intraday
All three describe the same trading. The 692% figure is return on intraday margin posted, which is the least meaningful of the three: a $3,000 margin balance would not survive a 60-point adverse move, so it is a financing threshold rather than the capital genuinely at risk. Net points is the figure I would defend, because it is independent of how the position was financed.
Self-reported strategy-testing results, January through August, unaudited. These are not verified live-account statements and are not indicative of future results. Figures assume a single ES contract per trade with no compounding of position size.
04 / Live project
Chip Street Capital—the portfolio journal.
An ongoing record of what we bought, why we bought it, and what we learned. Explore the current holdings, compare the portfolio with the S&P 500 through SPY, and review the research process and market outlook behind the decisions.
What we bought, why, and what we learned.
A living investing journal with position-level theses, benchmark context, market outlooks, and honest post-investment review.
05 / Capabilities
Skills, grouped by how they create value.
A focused view of the analytical capabilities I am building and applying across financial models, market research, and the Chip Street Capital portfolio.
Modeling & valuationDCF · Three statements · Sensitivity analysis
Markets & researchEquity thesis · Macro context · Catalysts
Risk & portfolioExposure · Drawdown · Attribution · Benchmarking
ToolsExcel · Python · SQL · Power BI · Tableau · PowerPoint